Michael Byers on Politics

Canada's oil-sands bonanza could mean disaster for Alaska's coastline

Canada's disregard for the impacts of selling oil sands to China will lead to the near-inevitability of another Exxon Valdez-type spill in U.S. waters

Michael Byers, Special to the Seattle Times, May 18, 2012

Twenty-three years after the Exxon Valdez spilled more than half a million barrels of oil into Prince William Sound, another threat looms over Alaska's remote and beautiful coastline — in the form of heavy oil exports from Canada to China.

A costly mistake that keeps getting costlier

Fred Thornhill/Reuters

Even now, we have no real idea what the price of each F-35 will be.

Michael Byers & Stewart Webb, National Post, May 15, 2012

Debates about the costs of the F-35 stealth fighter overlook a crucial point: It is only a prototype that’s still being tested and modified.

Ghost of the Avro Arrow haunts the F-35

Avro Arrow is unveiled in 1957.

Michael Byers, Toronto Star, April 5, 2012

Stephen Harper must have felt airsick this week after Auditor General Michael Ferguson exposed gross mismanagement of the F-35 procurement process.

Much of the blame rests with Defence Minister Peter MacKay, on whose watch the errors were made. But the seeds of the F-35 debacle were sown way back in 1959 — when former Conservative prime minister John Diefenbaker killed off the Avro Arrow.

Buyer beware the F-35

U.S. Navy photo courtesy Lockheed Martin

When attrition through accidents is factored in, we could end up with an available fleet of just 30-35 F-35s.

Michael Byers & Stewart Webb, National Post, March 29, 2012

The sorry tale of the F-35 stealth fighter jets just got worse, and not because Auditor General Michael Ferguson is issuing a report on the Department of National Defence’s procurement process next week. For it has emerged that F-35s suffer from — believe it or not — flaky skin.

You can’t replace real icebreakers

Michael Byers, Globe and Mail, March 27, 2012

A rugged little ship adorns the back of the new $50 bill that the Bank of Canada began circulating Monday. But, in an ironic twist of fate, the red and white CCGS Amundsen no longer sails the Arctic seas.

We need a big yellow plane that can hang from the sky

Sergeant Blair Mehane/ROYAL CANADIAN AIR FORCE

Search and rescue technicians participate in a mountain training exercise by Mount Waddington, B.C., in 2007.

By Michael Byers, National Post, March 13, 2012

It’s raining sideways this morning, as a stiff wind pushes low clouds between the headlands, hills and mountains of Canada’s West Coast. The valleys here are narrow, winding and covered by tall, dense forests. It’s easy to get lost in this terrain. And each year, thousands of people do just that.

A big yellow plane wafts into view, almost hanging from the sky. The half-century-old CC-115 Buffalo belongs in a museum, but instead it forms the backbone of the Canadian Forces’ search-and-rescue fleet in British Columbia and the Yukon.

My Cage Fight in Fort McMurray

Alberta invited me to give a talk. Next thing I know, I'm duking it out with the VP of Enbridge Northern Gateway.

Michael Byers, TheTyee.ca , March 9, 2012

Fort McMurray is full of guys who look as if they could take care of themselves. In contrast, I wouldn't be much help in a bar fight -- anymore.

As a much younger man, I earned my share of callouses on a hardscrabble family farm. The oil workers of Fort Mac remind me of the folks I knew in rural Saskatchewan: good-hearted people working hard to make a buck in the face of bad weather, fluctuating global markets and profit-driven corporations.

Paul Fisher is tall, slim, and handsome in a well coifed-and-tailored sort of way. But when the VP of Enbridge Northern Gateway stood up to introduce himself -- at a conference organized by the Northern Alberta Development Council -- I couldn't help but think that he looked a bit soft.

In Syria, small gestures won’t be enough

By Michael Byers and Joshua Freedman

National Post, February 23, 2012

On Friday, delegates from a group of countries calling themselves the “Friends of Syria” — including Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird — will meet in Tunis to co-ordinate pressure against Bashar al-Assad’s despotic and besieged Syrian regime.

Diplomats from the Arab League, France, U.K., European Union and United States will be present, along with representatives from the Syrian National Council (SNC) — an opposition group that is lobbying hard to be recognized as the legitimate government of Syria. In this regard, the SNC points to the precedent of Libya’s National Transitional Council (NTC), which was recognized by more than 60 nations before Muammar Gaddafi was removed from power in October 2011. But history shows us that recognizing opposition groups is fraught with risk, particularly when, as in Syria, they’ve failed to establish control over territory or speak with a united voice.

Toward a Canada-Russia Axis in the Arctic

Why Canada and Russia should unite to support a common position against the US in advancing certain Arctic claims

Michael Byers, Global Brief, February 6, 2012

Unlike the Antarctic, a continent surrounded by oceans, the Arctic is an ocean surrounded by continents. Most of the Arctic Ocean coastline belongs to the world’s two largest countries – Russia and Canada – each of which also owns territory on either side of a series of contested, and increasingly ice-free, Arctic straits.

Canada considers the Northwest Passage to be internal waters. Russia takes the same view of the Northern Sea Route. Both countries recognize that the thinning and melting of the Arctic sea ice pose environmental and security risks at the same time that they create economic opportunities in the form of increased shipping and access to natural resources. Both take the view that their domestic laws provide the best bases for protecting and developing their Northern coastlines. And both face a single, common source of opposition to their claims – namely, the US. All of this should beg the question: why have Russia and Canada not bolstered their respective positions by recognizing each other’s legal positions?

Thou shalt purchase F-35s

Julian Fantino’s faith-based defence procurement offers clarity and efficiency.

Michael Byers & Stewart Webb

 

"We will purchase the F-35. We’re on record. We’re part of the crusade. We’re not backing down."—Julian Fantino, associate minister of national defence, Fort Worth, Texas, Nov. 8, 2011.

Julian Fantino brings clarity and purpose to his new role as associate minister of national defence.

 Thanks to the introduction of faith-based procurement, the Harper government can now ignore the complexities and inefficiencies of design specifications, equipment testing, contract tendering, specified industrial regional benefits, etc.

From now on, decisions on new equipment for the Canadian Forces will be divinely ordained, and channelled to Canadians through Mr. Fantino’s divine connections.

Russia, Canada neighbours? Seabed territorial push could bring borders together

Randy Boswell, PostMedia News, February 14, 2012

Two Canadian legal scholars have published a study showing how the push by northern nations for extended seabed territory in the Arctic Ocean could soon find Canada negotiating a maritime boundary with a new next-door neighbour: Russia.

Most of Canada's borderlands and boundary waters separate this country from the United States, including Alaska in the northwest corner of the continent. Canada also has maritime boundaries with Denmark (between Ellesmere Island and Greenland) and France, which oversees the tiny islands of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon south of Newfoundland.

But the possibility that Canada and Russia might one day share a border has, until now, seemed unimaginable given the vast ocean distances separating the two countries, and the relatively modest 370-kilometre (200-nautical-mile) offshore zone within which nations are permitted to exercise exclusive jurisdiction and resource rights.

But a recently revealed oddity arising from a Beaufort Sea boundary dispute between Canada and the U.S. — along with the advent of a UN treaty allowing countries to claim ownership over extended continental shelves lying beyond the current 200-mile limit — has highlighted how Canada and Russia could be on a cartographic intercept course somewhere north of 80 degrees latitude.

The surprising scenario is laid out in a lengthy article published this month in the academic journal Ocean Development & International Law and co-authored by University of British Columbia geopolitics professor Michael Byers, a leading Canadian expert on Arctic sovereignty issues, and his PhD student, James Baker.

Harper's Economic Agenda: Michael Byers, John Ibbitson and Brian Lee Cowley debate

 

February 1, 2012, TVO The Agenda with Steve Paikin 

"Winter, M.I.A." -- Letter to the Editor of the Globe and Mail, January 28, 2012

It’s not easy to write about Canada’s recently erratic weather (Whither Winter – Jan. 27) without mentioning the term “climate change.” The unusual behaviour of the Arctic oscillation is almost certainly linked to dramatic increases in air and sea temperatures in that region. Around the world, thousands of scientists are working hard to understand the complexities of these climate-weather interactions. But few, if any, doubt greenhouse gas emissions are an important root cause.

Michael Byers, project leader with ArcticNet (consortium of Arctic scientists from 27 Canadian universities and eight federal departments)

For the original text, see: Letter to the editor

For the article to which I was responding, see: What happened to winter?

View from the Reichstag

In Berlin, I was told German history offers a lesson for Canadian democracy.

Michael Byers, TheTyee.ca , 26 January 2012

The glass dome above the Reichstag provides spectacular views of Germany's capital city. But British architect Norman Foster designed the structure to highlight another view: looking down from the edge of the spectator platform, one can see directly into the Bundestag -- the German Parliament.

The symbolism is powerful: the people are above the politicians, and the workings of Parliament are transparent to them.

The Russian Bear dominates the Arctic

To continue its dominance on the Arctic, the Russian Bear needs the help of foreign markets, investors and technologies.

Michael Byers, Al Jazeera.com, 3 January 2011

Vancouver, Canada - In the 1990 film The Hunt for Red October, Marko Ramius, the rogue captain of a Soviet nuclear missile submarine, evades the US and Soviet navies by maneuvering deftly through a narrow and winding - but precisely charted - mid-Atlantic trench.

In real life, the Soviet navy's charting efforts extended to the heart of the NATO-controlled Canadian Arctic. Soviet-era charts on board the Akademik Ioffe, an ice-strengthened ship owned by the Russian Academy of Sciences and chartered by a Canadian eco-cruise company, show many more depth soundings in the Northwest Passage than do comparable Canadian charts.

For the full text, see: Russian Bear

Russia pulling ahead in the Arctic

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin speaks at a transportation conference in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk. (Nov. 2011)

Michael Byers, Toronto Star, December 29, 2011

NOVOSIBIRSK, RUSSIA—“Canada has a good working relationship with Russia with respect to the Arctic. There is no likelihood of Arctic states going to war.”

The Russian foreign ministry’s representative in Siberia smiles as he quotes the Canadian Prime Minister, as reported in a U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.

Although Stephen Harper never expected that his conversation with NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen would be made public, the analysis was entirely correct. Here in Novosibirsk (pop. 1.5 million), people are more interested in trade and investment opportunities than geopolitical conspiracies.

The dragon looks north

China grows hungry for Arctic resources and shipping routes as northern ice melts.

China has already invested $25bn to build an oil pipeline from Sibera [EPA] Michael Byers, AlJazeera.com, December 28, 2011

Vancouver, Canada - As the Arctic sea-ice melts, the Dragon looks to the north. China has a voracious appetite for oil, natural gas and minerals - of which the Arctic has plenty. The world's newest superpower is also the world's largest shipping nation, and well positioned to take advantage of shorter routes across an increasingly ice-free Arctic Ocean.

There is no unclaimed land available in the Arctic, because Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and the United States carved up the region centuries ago. But this fact doesn't discourage a resource-hungry China, which knows it can buy the access it needs.

Chinese state-owned companies have already invested tens of billions of dollars in Canada's northern tar sands. Three years ago, the Chinese government lent a Russian company $25bn so that it could build an oil pipeline from Siberia to China, which now carries 300,000 barrels per day. ...

For the full text, see: The dragon looks north 

Melting Arctic brings new opportunities

Changing conditions in the far north have sparked excitement and unfounded concerns over potential conflict.

Michael Byers, Al Jazeera.com , December 22, 2011

Vancouver, Canada - "For the first time in my life, I'm trying to find ice."

Alex MacIntyre was standing on the bridge of the Akademik Ioffe as the Russian-flagged ice-strengthened cruise ship traversed the Northwest Passage last summer. A Canadian ice-pilot with four decades of Arctic experience, MacIntyre remembers when the route was choked with sea-ice that was 10 to 15 metres thick.

Twenty-two ships sailed through the Northwest Passage in 2011. On the other side of the Arctic Ocean, 34 ships traversed Russia's Northern Sea Route.

The Arctic Ocean, which exists in a precarious balance between ice and water, is more susceptible to climate change than anywhere else on Earth. A so-called "feedback loop" exacerbates the situation: As climate change warms the air and melts the highly reflective ice from above, it exposes more dark ocean water which acts like a solar sponge, absorbing more energy from the sun and melting the remaining ice from below.

For the full text, see: Melting Arctic brings new opportunities

 

Russian maps suggest Soviet subs cruised Canadian Arctic

Bob Weber, The Canadian Press, December 6, 2011

The old Soviet Union may have been just as familiar with Canada’s Arctic waters as Canadians.

Sections of Cold-War-era nautical charts obtained by The Canadian Press suggest that Russian mariners have for decades possessed detailed and accurate knowledge of crucial internal waterways such as the Northwest Passage.

Those charts, which may offer the first documentary proof of the widely held belief that Soviet nuclear submarines routinely patrolled the Canadian Arctic during the Cold War, are still in use by Russian vessels. In some places, they are preferred to current Canadian charts.

"Should Canada focus on keeping the peace?: Yes"

Peacekeeping is not passé. We don't hear about it because it works

Michael Byers, Ottawa Citizen, 12 November 2011

"We need action not only to end the fighting but to make the peace ...."

Spoken by Lester B. Pearson in 1956, these words grace the side of the peacekeeping monument in Ottawa. They also provide an insight into the true nature of this difficult and often dangerous task.